WMR = 47.20 - Very Poor (Outplayed)
What is WMR?
WMR (Weekly Match Rating) is a single-match score out of 100. It blends stats from Attack, Defense, Control (possession), Defensive Actions, Set Pieces, plus small adjustments (availability, manager, result).
Higher = better.
WMR scale (single match /100):
65-69.9 = Clear Edge
60–64.9 = Below Standard
55-59.9 = Subpar / Competitive
50–54.9 = Poor
45-49.9 = Very Poor (Outplayed) ← United this week: 47.20
0–44.9 = Unacceptable
Table of Contents
Key stats
xG: 2.03 vs xGA: 1.99 (looks even but definitely flatters us)
Shots / On target: 14 / 6 (42.9% shot accuracy)
Big chances: 4 created vs 6 conceded
Possession / Duels / Tackles: 56% / 49% / 56%
GK goals prevented: –0.18 (slightly negative)
Model Point Breakdown
Category (→max) | Points |
|---|---|
Attack (→24) | 22.571 |
Defense (→24) | -0.60 |
Control (→14) | 10.27 |
Def. Actions (→14) | 3.97 |
Set Pieces (→10) | 5.00 |
Adjustments (→14) | 6.00 |
WMR / 100 | 47.20 |
What drove the 47.20 rating
The Attack score looks solid at 22.57, but it's misleading. Nearly all our threat came from four isolated moments.
Bruno's penalty: 0.79 xG
Šeško close-range #1: 0.31 xG
Šeško close-range #2: 0.34 xG
Šeško goal: 0.38 xG
Total from these four: 1.82 / 2.03 xG (~90%)
Strip those out and the other 10 shots generated just 0.21 xG, roughly 0.02 per shot. That's terrible. The model gives credit for high-value chances, which is fair, but it doesn't yet distinguish between sustained creativity and a couple of lucky sequences. We know this flatters the performance, and the January model update will address it by better handling these inflated cases.
The Defense score took a hit (-0.60) from conceding six big chances and nearly 2.0 xGA. We had plenty of the ball (Possession: 10.27) but didn't turn it into effective suppression.
Season Trends
More possession = more danger against us
When we have 55%+ possession (4 matches): 1.78 xGA and 3.25 big chances conceded per game. When we have less (2 matches): 1.06 xGA and 2.0 big chances conceded.
Bottom line: dominating the ball isn't making us safer, it's leaving us more open at the back. We're not creating more going forward, but we're definitely conceding more.
Why it's happening: Amorim's 3-4-3 pushes high, leaving two central midfielders exposed in transition when wing-backs advance. More possession means more players forward, when we lose the ball, the two-man pivot gets overrun and opponents hit the gaps.
Away form is a problem
We concede twice as much on the road: 2.10 xGA away vs 0.98 at home. Big chances against? 4.33 per away game vs 1.33 at Old Trafford.
Our shape falls apart away from home, and that's where points are slipping away.
Why it's happening: Away, we're less confident holding our shape. Teams counter into the space behind our wing-backs, and without home comfort our defenders get dragged out of position more easily.
Winning tackles shuts down danger
When we hit 65%+ tackle success (2 matches): 1.06 xGA, 2.0 big chances against.
Miss that mark (4 matches): 1.78 xGA, 3.25 big chances against.
It's not just effort, it's winning the right duels at the right time.
Why it’s happening: With only two midfielders covering large spaces, missed tackles let opponents attack exposed areas before our back three can recover. Clean tackles in midfield = danger stopped early.
1 January Model Update - In January I’ll be tweaking how the Attack rating works to better handle games where a penalty or tight cluster of chances inflates the numbers. The new system will separate sustained creativity (NPxG spread across the match) from isolated spikes, so ratings better reflect the actual process rather than getting skewed by a few moments.
New ratings every Monday, full form updates every Thursday. If this was helpful, pass it along to other Reds. 🙌