Every Monday, I put out WMR. basically my attempt to work out who actually played better. Forget the deflections and VAR controversies - who was really the better team on the pitch?
How WMR is Built
I take all the important bits from the match and mash them into one number. Each stat is judged relative to the opponent.
Chance Quality (xG + Big Chances)
Did we create real scoring opportunities, and how many did we allow?Territorial Control (Possession %, Final-Third Entries)
Who actually controlled the ball and where?Execution (Shots on Target %, Duels/Tackles Won %)
Were we sharper in key actions than the opponent?Set Pieces (Corners & Set-Piece xG/goals)
Margins at the top level often come from restarts.Goalkeeper Swing (PSxG – GA)
Did our keeper prevent goals above expectation or gift them?
All of these are rolled into a single match score (/100). There's no weighting for how "good" the opponent is. WMR is simply the head-to-head from that match.
Reading the Ladder
Here's what the numbers actually mean:
85–100 Dominant (A+): Domination.
80–84.9 Elite Control: Outclassed the opponent; finishing maybe lacked.
75–79.9 Comprehensive Win: Clear superiority across phases.
70–74.9 Strong Win: Solid win; control for long spells.
65–69.9 Clear Edge: Better side overall, not emphatic.
60–64.9 Below Standard: Small edge or scrappy; short of expectations.
55–59.9 Subpar / Competitive: Could go either way; flaws on both sides.
50–54.9 Poor: Second best on balance; struggled to impose.
45–49.9 Very Poor (Outplayed): Opponent dictated terms for long stretches.
0–44.9 Unacceptable: Proper shite.
Example: Arsenal (H) 0–1
On August 17, 2025, United lost 0–1 to Arsenal at Old Trafford in the first game of the season. Take that Arsenal game everyone was saying 'we dominated but couldn't finish.' Let me show you what WMR captured.
xG: 1.52–1.31 → slight edge to United.
Big Chances: 0–1 → Arsenal the only clear opening.
Possession: 61% → United controlled the ball.
Shots: 22 attempts, but only 7 on target (32% SoT rate).
Duels/Tackles: 57% duels won, but only 50% tackles won.
Set Pieces: 3–4 corners, conceded the game’s only goal from a restart.
WMR Score: 53.8 → “Marginal / edged out.”
Performance vs. Result
Problem is, 1-0 doesn't tell you much. Could've been a battering or a smash-and-grab. WMR tells you which:
Flattering result: United edge a 1–0 win but create little (low xG, lose duels, concede big chances). WMR can sit in the mid-50s (even game) - three points, but no evidence of control.
Harsh result: United lose 0–1 but generate 2.0 xG, win 65% duels, and dominate territory. WMR can land in the low-60s (Above Average) - proof the performance was there even if the result wasn’t.
That's the point, to know if we actually played well, not just if we got lucky.
From WMR to MSI
WMR is the single-match truth.
MSI (Match Sharpness Index) is the big picture - a rolling-5 average of WMR combined with CHI (club health over the last 3 games).
⚽ Basically: WMR is the take on 90 minutes. MSI tells you if we're actually getting somewhere or just having the odd good day.