Match Sharpness Index (MSI): 51.7 (Up from 50.4)
New to MSI? Read the full explainer → MSI Explained: Match Sharpness Index
What happened? Sunderland delivered our best performance of the season and MSI rose to 51.7. A proper step up from last week’s dip.
Takeaway: Structure finally matched chance quality. Keep xGA around 1.0 and create 1–2 big chances vs Liverpool/Brighton; lose midfield control and shape then MSI drifts back toward ~50.
This week's story
Sunderland 2–0 United: WMR 65.15 pushed MSI from 50.4 to 51.7. We controlled the game and created repeatable chances. Could’ve been up by more than two at halftime. Defense held the floor: clean sheet, low xGA, keeper who finally added value.
Read the Sunderland WMR → Sunderland Weekly Match Rating
Club Health Index carry-over: October's CHI sits at 52.3 (Inconsistent) - the injury list is shorter and the new signings plus U23s are getting proper game time, which helps, though the feeling around the club still lags.
Read the October Club Health Index breakdown → October Club Health Index
Where 51.7 sits on the ladder
60–64.9: Mid-table baseline
55–59.9: Domestic bottom-third
50–54.9: Relegation Form ← We’re still here (51.7)
45–49.9: Severe Underperformance
35–44.9: Crisis
These ranges reflect performance quality, not table position. “Relegation form” means 38 games at this level puts you in trouble.
Sunderland MSI Update
Read Sunderland WMR → Read Here
Then Sunderland. WMR of 65.15 pushed MSI from 50.4 to 51.7.
We actually controlled the game. 2–0 at Old Trafford (Mount 8′, Šeško 31′). xG 1.88–0.71. 15 shots, 6 on target. 51% possession. This time we used the ball to create proper chances and not just pass it back and forth between ourselves.
Attack: Repeatable patterns, not one-offs. We could’ve been up by more than 2 at halftime.
Defense: First clean sheet, xGA 0.71, and Lammens +0.94 goals prevented. Compact shape, no panic.
Balanced on paper, better in practice. United’s structure told the story: more accurate passing and compact defending (xGA 0.71).
MSI Trend (Weeks 3–7)
Week 3: 51.3 (post-Burnley) - recovery after Fulham
Week 4: 49.9 (post-City) - heavy drop; overrun
Week 5: 51.4 (post-Chelsea) - red card bailed us out; scraped a win
Week 6: 50.4 (post-Brentford) - back down; same old problems
Week 7: 51.7 (post-Sunderland) - proper performance
One good week doesn't fix everything. We need to stack these back-to-back to actually climb out of the low-50s. Sunderland was a start, but Liverpool and Brighton will show if we can actually string performances together or if we're stuck bouncing between 49 and 52.
What Needs To Happen Next
Liverpool away comes after the international break, then Brighton at home. A solid draw at Anfield or even a narrow, structured loss around 55-60 WMR keeps MSI flat or nudges it up by one. A chaotic thrashing will drop us right back down though. Follow it up with a solid performance against Brighton and the index finally starts trending up instead of bouncing around.
The formula's simple: keep xGA low, create one or two more clear chances without losing shape, and stick with a core XI so the patterns from Sunderland can repeat. That's how we stack 60+ WMRs week after week.
Bottom Line
We're at 51.7 and pointing upward, still in relegation form territory, but there's a starting point at least. The Sunderland game worked: defensive structure plus quality chances equals 60+ WMRs.
String together Anfield and Brighton, and the index follows. Slip back into the Brentford version, getting bypassed in midfield, conceding early and MSI slides back toward 50 through November. We've seen those floors recently: 49.9 after City, 50.4 after Brentford. We've been here before. Time to see if this one sticks.
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