Match Sharpness Index (MSI): 50.7 (up from 49.1)
What happened? Chelsea performance at home was exactly what we needed. A solid 64.9 WMR pushed our rolling-5 average up to 54.3 (+2.6 from last week). The CHI numbers stayed put at 45.3 (rolling-3 at 43.9), which means this +1.5 MSI bump came purely from the lads showing up on the pitch.
Highlights from this week
We've been starved for positives this season, so let me savor these:
76% tackles won – our best of the season. When you're winning your duels, you're protecting the box and keeping those dangerous moments to a minimum. Simple football, done well.
0.43 xGA – also a season best. We actually made Chelsea work for their chances, limiting them to just 1 big opportunity all game. That's the kind of defensive discipline we've been crying out for.
Table of Contents
Understanding MSI
Match Sharpness Index (MSI) is a 0–100 rating of Manchester United’s overall form. It combines:
WMR (Weekly Match Rating): rolling last-5 games
CHI (Club Health Index): rolling last-3 months of club health
A guardrail that limits major week-to-week swings
Formula: MSI = 0.65 × WMR(Last 5) + 0.35 × CHI(Last 3).
MSI update due to the Chelsea match (WMR effect)
United 2–1 Chelsea earned us a 64.9 WMR – labeled "Below Standard" but honestly, that's pretty good by our recent standards. (Read Full Chelsea match breakdown here)
Going forward we created 1.84 xG and 3 big chances with 4 out of 11 shots hitting the target. At the back, we stayed compact and organized: that 0.43 xGA was our lowest of the season, and we only gave up 1 big chance.
Here's how the numbers moved:
Before Chelsea: MSI at 49.13 (rolling-5 WMR of 51.8, CHI at 45.3)
After Chelsea: WMR jumped to 54.3, which gave us an MSI of 50.66
The takeaway? One solid performance moved us up 1.5 points. To really get out of trouble, we need to back this up with another 60-65 WMR performance next week while keeping our club health stable.
Where 50.7 sits on the MSI ladder
The MSI ladder isn't pretty reading, but at least we're moving up:
60–64.9: Mid-table baseline
55–59.9: Domestic bottom-third
50–54.9: Relegation Form ← We're here at 50.7 (up from Severe Underperformance)
45–49.9: Severe Underperformance
35–44.9: Crisis
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What it will take to climb a tier
We're at 50.7 trying to get properly into Relegation Form (50–54.9) and then push higher. Here's what needs to happen:
1) String together performances
We need another 60-65 WMR against Brentford. String together two wins in that range and we typically see MSI jumps of +2 to +3 points (guardrail permitting).
What's coming: Brentford away (Sep 27), Sunderland at home (Oct 4), Liverpool away (Oct 19), Brighton at home (Oct 25). That's a mixed bag, but we should be looking to take points from three of those four.
2) Stop our club health from dragging us down
Our CHI sitting around 43.9 is actively hurting us. We need to get it into the low-50s so it starts helping instead of hindering. We need results and better integration of our new signings and young players. A win this weekend will be crucial for the October CHI update.
3) Fix on-pitch problems first (These give the quickest WMR boost)
The quickest way to boost WMR? Fix the on-pitch stuff.
Keep defending like we did versus Chelsea: Season-low 0.43 xGA and 76% tackles won is the template. When we're aggressive in duels and compact as a unit, we give ourselves a chance.
Get something from the keeper: We're still slightly in the red with -0.41 goals prevented. Even small positives (+0.20) can swing tight matches by 1-2 WMR points.
Bottom line
MSI is 50.7 and – fingers crossed – finally trending upward. The Chelsea game showed us a path that actually makes sense: everyone available, win your battles, stay organized, create good chances.
Do that again at Brentford and we're genuinely on our way out of the danger zone. It's not revolutionary stuff, but sometimes the simple approach is exactly what's needed.
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