TLDR
MSI: 51.52 (up from 48.60). Moves us up into Relegation Form category from Severe Underperformance.
What moved it: Burnley performance gave us +2.00, September club health added +0.92. Guardrail on Burnley performance capped the move at +2.00.
To get out of Relegation Form: Need two proper 65+ WMR performances back-to-back plus settle the drama around the club this month. Stop conceding set pieces (3 already), win more battles (48% duels isn’t good enough), and get our keeper to actually save shots instead of letting them in.
Understanding MSI
Match Score Index (MSI) is a 0–100 rating of Manchester United’s overall form. It combines:
WMR (Weekly Match Rating): rolling last-5 performance
CHI (Club Health Index): rolling last-3 months of club health
A guardrail that limits major week-to-week swings
Formula: MSI = 0.65 × WMR(Last 5) + 0.35 × CHI(Last 3).
Guardrail caps the weekly MSI change to ±2–5 points.
MSI update due to the Burnley match (WMR effect)
Rather than go through the whole match again, here's what it did to MSI: Burnley got us a WMR of 64.65, dragging our last-5 WMR average up to 55.00 and gave MSI a decent bump (hit the guardrail limit).
Starting point (Aug 27): MSI 48.60
After Burnley (Aug 30):
WMR(5): 55.00
MSI No Guardrail: 50.64
MSI Post Guardrail: 50.60 (WMR move capped at +2.0)
Takeaway: The Burnley performance lifted us about +2 from a very low base. One half-decent performance doesn’t magically fix everything that came before.
MSI update due to the CHI refresh (CHI effect)
September CHI: 47.5 (Fragile) vs August 42.5, bringing our three-month CHI average to ~45.
After CHI refresh (Sep 1):
MSI No Guardrail: 51.52
MSI Post Guardrail (Week 3): 51.52
The added +0.92 was within guardrail allowance
Takeaway: Club Health improved a touch (new signings + U23s getting minutes, plus PPG and xG difference being populated), but the club health is still dragging us down rather than helping.
Where 51.52 sits on the MSI ladder
Two tiers above, current tier, two below:
60–64.9: Mid-table baseline
55–59.9: Domestic bottom-third
50–54.9: Relegation Form ← 51.52 here (moved up from Severe Underperformance)
45–49.9: Severe Underperformance
35–44.9: Reset needed
Why we’re still in Relegation Form
Three games in and we’ve been pretty shit if we’re being honest. A single decent result doesn’t wipe the performance at Fulham or Grimsby. MSI shows the reality: rough start + club still getting sorted leaves us sitting in relegation form on my scale (not the actual table obviously).
Hopefully we can build something from the Burnley game though.
What it will take to climb a tier
1) String together consistent performances
Need a couple of proper 65+ performances back-to-back to push MSI above 55. (This will be tough with the upcoming games.) One “Below Standard” week (60–64) typically moves MSI only ~1–2 points.
2) Improve the October health metrics
Fix the feel around the club, keep players fit (no new injuries), integrate signings cleanly, and rack up PPG. Getting CHI into the low-50s would turn it from a drag into a small tailwind.
3) Fix the on-pitch leaks that directly hit WMR
Finishing: lift shots-on-target from 23% toward 30–40%
Set-piece defense: stop conceding cheap corners and set-piece goals
Duels: raise 48% vs Burnley toward 52–55%+ to reinforce control phases
Goalkeeper impact: aim for positive goals prevented (a positive PSxG − GA) to turn tight wins into comfortable ones
Bottom line
We’ve risen into Relegation Form at 51.52 - a step up from last week’s Severe Underperformance, but still far off the standard.
The Burnley result and CHI uptick give something to build on. If United can stack commanding performances and keep October’s CHI moving in the right direction, the index can climb.
The upcoming fixtures won’t make it easy, but there is a path if standards rise quickly.
👉 Follow along each week: Mondays for match ratings, Thursdays for MSI updates, and monthly deep dives into club health.