MSI Week 2 - 48.6 (Severe Underperformance) + Ladder Update

MSI (published): 48.6 (last week: 49.1). On our updated ladder that puts us in Severe Underperformance territory. The writings on the wall after Fulham and Grimsby - we're simply not performing well enough. The MSI tracks the trend (rolling WMR + CHI with a guardrail), the next few league games will tell us which way this is heading.

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Fulham (A) 1-1 — WMR 42.4 (Unacceptable): We had decent spells of control but couldn't find that killer instinct in the final third. Conceding 9 corners and 3 big chances against brought the WMR down.

Grimsby (A) 2-2, lost 12-11 pens — WMR 60.9 (Below Standard): Below standard against lower-league opposition, plain and simple. Crucial mistakes and poor finishing in the box meant we ended up in a poor position.

Why WMR is higher vs Grimsby than Fulham: The model looks at the process, not just results. Against Grimsby we created more chances, controlled more territory, and got more shots on target overall (Minus the first 35 minutes) - that's why the score is higher than the Fulham game, even though both performances were disappointing. It's still Below Standard.

MSI 48.6 = Severe Underperformance (45-49.9) means we're far below our own standard. A 60-64 WMR week would bump the number up slightly (the guardrail plus low CHI keeps any movement small). We need back-to-back 65+ league performances to start climbing toward Domestic Mid-table, then Europa Level. Drop below 55 and we're sliding further.

xGA - Protect the middle (kill cutbacks): Stay tight, track those late runners, force teams wide or backward.

Set-Piece Count - Stop cheap set-pieces: No lazy fouls in the defensive third, and make sure our clearances aren't just panic balls that turn into corners.

Set-Pieces Conceded - Win the first ball, clean the second: Attack that first header aggressively, then the line behind needs to hoover up any loose balls. One call, one action, ball gone.

We’ve tightened our tier labels to better reflect the last two performances. The math is unchanged — MSI = 0.65·WMR (rolling 5) + 0.35·CHI (rolling 3) with the same weekly guardrail - but the language now bites harder in the 50–64 range so the model doesn’t flatter poor weeks.

90–100 — Best-in-Europe (title favorite)
85–89.9 — Final-Contender
80–84.9 — Semifinal-Capable
75–79.9 — Quarterfinal Baseline (was “Quarterfinal Favorite”)
70–74.9 — Last-16 Favorite (was “Quarterfinal Baseline”)
65–69.9 — Europa Level
60–64.9 — Domestic Mid-table
55–59.9 — Domestic Bottom-third
50–54.9 — Relegation Form
45–49.9 — Severe Underperformance
35–44.9 — Crisis
0–34.9 — Reset Needed
(Top bands 80+ remain as before.)

85–100 — Dominant (A+)
80–84.9 — Elite Control
75–79.9 — Comprehensive Win
70–74.9 — Strong Win
65–69.9 — Clear Edge
60–64.9 — Below Standard
55–59.9 — Subpar / Competitive
50–54.9 — Poor
45–49.9 — Very Poor (Outplayed)
0–44.9 — Unacceptable

Recent fixtures (Arsenal, Fulham, Grimsby) exposed softness in our old wording around 50–64. These revisions keep the model honest to the eye test while preserving consistency in the numbers.