MSI Week 1 — 49.8 (Severe Underperformance)
Baseline set. Values: WMR5 53.8, CHI3 42.5. Guardrail NA
What moved MSI this week
We controlled but didn't threaten enough. Had 61% possession, won 57% of duels, and took 22 shots - but only 31.8% were on target and we created 0 big chances. Control without real threat doesn't cut it at this level.
Set pieces decided it. Set-piece goals: 0–1 against us and corners: 3–4 in their favor. When open play is tight like this, dead ball situations become the deciding factor.
Squad availability was decent but we haven't built continuity yet. 9/11 first-choice starters available and our keeper prevented +0.21 xG - solid foundation, but we haven't stacked enough minutes together as a unit.
Breaking down the season signal
WMR (rolling-5): 53.8 — Performance alone puts us at Poor level
CHI (rolling-3): 42.5 — This keeps the overall rating honest until we prove continuity and consistency
Composite baseline: 49.8 ≈ 0.65·WMR5 + 0.35·CHI3
MSI (published): 49.8 (no guardrail adjustment needed)
In plain terms: We controlled the match but couldn't convert that control into genuine threat or set-piece value.
Why CHI sits at 42.5 (Week 1 reality check)
FEEL is still low (team cohesion/tactical clarity/leadership presence/squad depth confidence). Lots of pre-season optimism, but I want to see how we develop over the next few months before getting too excited.
Form evidence just isn't there yet. One match gives us almost no proof of anything - PPG is literally zero and the xG difference signal is minimal.
Last season's "proven" credit is basically nil. The league finish and cup run add no boost to our "Proven" rating right now, so CHI doesn't get any free points from recent history.
The positives: Availability looks decent, Recruit/Youth integration provides some credit (good minutes for new signings and U23 players), and Financial situation isn't dragging us down. But those three negatives above are the main anchors today.
Where this puts us right now
49.8 = Europa+ / Gap to UCL. Our performance level suggests Group-Stage quality, but the cohesion factor says prove it again with a stable core.
Fast track to +3 points next week
Own our set pieces: Target +1 set-piece goal differential
Create 1–2 genuine big chances: Improve our threat level and protect our shot conversion%
Stick with the same spine: Same back five and midfield core to build that crucial continuity
What the MSI number means (for first-time readers)
The MSI combines two key metrics:
WMR (rolling-5) — How we actually played relative to our opponents
CHI (rolling-3) — Can we field and keep our best XI together, and is the underlying form sustainable?
We limit big weekly swings with a guardrail (NA this week due to first week)
Box score snapshot
xG: 1.52–1.31 (~54% share) • Shots/SoT: 22/7 • Possession: 61% • Duels won: 57%
Set-piece goals: 0–1 • Corners: 3–4 • GK goals prevented: +0.21
Cadence: Monday WMR • Thursday MSI • Monthly CHI.
If you want one clean number + the three levers each week, subscribe.