A Single Number that Tracks Manchester United’s Form
Every Thursday I put out one number:
MSI / Match Sharpness Index
What You're Getting
I started this because I was tired of not knowing if we were actually improving or just getting the odd result. Needed something better than “feeling optimistic after beating Wolves 1–0.” So I combine two metrics:
WMR (Weekly Match Rating): How United actually played over the last match. (performance data, opponent-adjusted)
CHI (Club Health Index): Where the club project stands (squad health, form trends, tactical cohesion)
MSI = 65% WMR (average last 5) + 35% CHI (average last 3)guardrailed ±2–5 per week.
If MSI keeps going up, we might actually getting somewhere. If it's stuck or falling, we're probably not.
Mon: Match Card (WMR receipt)
Thu: MSI headline + drivers
Month-end: CHI deep dive.
Table of Contents
Why This Exists
Got tired of football chat being all “we won so we’re amazing” or just straight-up vibes. Wanted something built on stats, not mood swings.
Results can lie. Performances don’t. You can fluke a 2-1 win and still play like crap. What matters is whether you’re creating real chances and holding it together at the back.
No overreactions. One Bruno screamer or a last-minute Maguire header won’t send the numbers off a cliff. The system’s built to highlight consistency, not chaos.
Every score comes with receipts. If I’m saying a team’s playing well (or badly), the data’s right there to back it up.
How to Read MSI
The scale breaks down into these tiers:
90–100 Best-in-Europe (title favorite): Peak form. Dominating. Can take on anyone, anywhere.
85–89.9 Final-Contender: Elite level over time. Trophies decided by fine margins.
80–84.9 Semifinal-Capable: Built for knockout football. Would fancy them against most in the quarters.
75–79.9 Quarterfinal Baseline: Solid top-8 side. Can handle tough away legs.
70–74.9 Last-16 Favorite: Should be making it past the first knockout round.
65–69.9 Europa Level: Not quite UCL standard. Stronger fit in the Europa League.
60–64.9 Domestic Mid-table: Hot and cold. Good enough for top half, not Europe.
55–59.9 Domestic Bottom-third: Slipping. Survival mode starting to kick in.
50–54.9 Relegation Form: Trouble on and off the ball. Not just results. Performances are poor too.
45–49.9 Severe Underperformance: Going nowhere fast. Needs a sharp turnaround.
35–44.9 Crisis: Everything’s breaking. Big reset needed, fast.
0–34.9 Reset Needed: Tear it all down. Total rebuild required.
Your Weekly Schedule
Monday: Weekly Match Rating (WMR)
The stats-driven take on how we actually played. Did we create chances? Control the game? Look solid at the back? It’s just about that one match. Were we good or not?
Thursday: MSI Update
The number that matters. It blends recent form (last 5 games) with overall club health to give one clear score. Easy to track, always with context.
Month-end: Club Health Index Deep Dive
This is where I break down what’s really changing. Squad fitness, form trends, tactical shifts, even finances. It all feeds into the MSI. One update a month.
The Promise
No spin. Numbers first. If we’re good, it’ll show. If we’re not, I’ll point to the leaks, finishing, defensive transitions, set pieces, squad depth, backed by receipts. This is for United fans who want simple are we actually good, or just catching breaks? No hysteria, no victory laps for one moment of magic.
A Note on the Project
This is early and I’m building it in public. I’m an engineer who loves numbers and loves United, trying to make something useful. The method will evolve as I learn what holds up. When it changes, I’ll say what changed, why, and what it means for the scores. The aim is simple: an honest read on where we are and where we’re heading.