What changed this week?
Liverpool added +2 GF and 1 set-piece goal. 3 of the last 5 matches now include a set-piece goal for. The result keeps the last-five at 3–0–2 and sets us up nicely for Brighton (H) this weekend.
Record: 4–1–3
xG Δ: +2.17
Last 5: 3–0–2
SOT%: 34% (season 31%)
GK Goals Prevented (net): +2.46
Set-pieces
5 Scored - 3 Conceeded
45% of goals are from set-pieces
Table of Contents
Data through: Oct 19, 2025 (8 games, Arsenal → Liverpool) · Last updated: Oct 23, 2025.
Team Stats
Opponent Context By Last Season Finishes
Top‑8 (Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool)
Record: 2‑0‑2
xG: 6.01–7.33 (xG Δ −1.32)
SOT: 13–20
In‑box: 64%
Possession: 43%
Fixtures: Arsenal (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (H), Liverpool (A)
Mid‑8 (Brentford, Fulham)
Record: 0‑1‑1
xG: 3.71–3.78 (xG Δ −0.07)
SOT: 9–12
In‑box: 71%
Possession: 52%
Fixtures: Fulham (A), Brentford (A)
Newly Promoted (Burnley, Sunderland)
Record: 2‑0‑0
xG: 5.47–1.91 (xG Δ +3.56)
SOT: 12–6
In‑box: 73%
Possession: 56%
Fixtures: Burnley (H), Sunderland (H)
Home/Away Split
Home split (4): 3‑0‑1
GF 7 GA 4
xG Δ +4.76
Away split (4): 1‑1‑2,
GF 4 GA 8
xG Δ −2.59
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Season Stats vs Last 5 Games
Metric | Season (Utd–Opp) | Last 5 (Utd–Opp) |
|---|---|---|
Goals | 11–12 | 7–8 |
xG | 15.19–13.02 | 8.62–8.54 |
Big chances | 23–23 | 16–18 |
Shots on target | 34–38 | 22–24 |
Shots | 109–96 | 64–55 |
Shots in box | 75–74 | 43–44 |
Corners | 34–36 | 17–23 |
Set‑piece goals | 5–3 | 3–1 |
Possession (Utd %) | 48% | 48% |
Season Trendline
Last five xG: 8.62–8.54 (dead-even)
Season baseline: xG Δ +2.17 (lean positive)
Big-chance ledger (last 5): 16–18 (opp +2)
Implication: outcomes hinge more on finishing precision than shot volume.
Player Stat Leaders (≥360′)
Scoring & xG
Top scorers (tied): Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Šeško - 2 goals each
xG total: Bruno Fernandes 3.62 (team-high)
xG/90 (rate leader): Benjamin Šeško 0.59 (best among ≥360′)
xG Δ (over‑performance): Casemiro +0.11 (393′) - only meaningful positive
United’s chance engine: team-high xG 3.62, most key passes (2.8/g) and passes (56.9/g); joint-top scorer (2).
Chance Creation
Key passes per game: Bruno Fernandes 2.8/g (team‑high)
Shots per game: Bryan Mbeumo 2.5/g (Cunha 2.4/g)
Pass volume: Bruno Fernandes 56.9 passes/g (team‑high)
Dribbles per game: Amad Diallo 1.0/g
Aerial & Defensive
Aerials won per game: Matthijs de Ligt 3.3/g (team‑best)
Clearances per game: Matthijs de Ligt 5.1/g (team‑best)
Tackles per game: Patrick Dorgu 2.6/g
Interceptions per game (tie): Patrick Dorgu 1.1/g, Leny Yoro 1.1/g
Passing & Security
Pass accuracy (≥360′ & ≥25 passes/g): Amad Diallo 92.6%
Progression proxy (crosses/longs): Luke Shaw 3.1 long balls/g
Most Minutes Played
Most minutes:
Matthijs de Ligt 720′
Bruno Fernandes 712′
Luke Shaw 693′
Bryan Mbeumo 686′
Who’s Heating Up
Amad Diallo (506′)
Recent (last 3): 7 key passes (LIV 2 · SUN 3 · MCI 2)
Passing form: 92–100% completion in each of the last 3
Season line: 1 assist; 1.4 key passes/g
Right-side combination with Mbeumo is looking nice; look for cutbacks to Šeško/Mbeumo
Right-side spark - 7 key passes in the last three (2 vs LIV, 3 vs SUN, 2 vs MCI) with 92–100% passing; link-up on the right is heating up
Benjamin Šeško (415′)
Recent (last 2 starts): 7 shots · 5 SOT
Match ratings: 7.54 (BRE A) · 8.11 (SUN H)
Season rate: 0.59 xG/90 (team-best ≥360′)
Aerial output: 2.4 aerials won/g
Set‑piece Watch
Tally: 5 scored / 3 conceded (≈45% of United's goals)
Why this matters: When open-play margins are thin and SOT% is still ~31%, dead balls are United’s most bankable way to tilt tight games.
What it means for the next match: If corners climb toward six or more, expect at least one high-value chance to come from a dead ball; if they don’t, the result will hinge more on open-play finishing.
What to expect - Brighton (H)
Prediction check (last week)
@ Liverpool: Possession ≤40% → LANDED (37%) ✓
@ Liverpool: 6+ SOT against → LANDED (6) ✓
@ Liverpool: 1+ set-piece in threat mix → LANDED (50% of goals) ✓
This week vs Brighton
Possession: 55–60% (vs Others benchmark)
Shot volume: 13–16 shots; 10–12 in-box
Conversion trigger: SOT% ≥33% → 2-goal cushion likely; <30% → one-goal game
Set-piece watch: ~40–50% of threat; ≈1 goal if corners ≥6
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