A single number that tracks where Manchester United are at as a club.
Every Thursday, I put out one number: MSI
What You're Getting
Started this because I got tired of not knowing if we were actually improving or just having the odd good result. Needed something better than 'feeling optimistic after beating Wolves 1-0. So I take two other metrics then mash them together:
WMR (Weekly Match Rating): How United actually played over the last match. (performance data, opponent-adjusted)
CHI (Club Health Index): Where the club project stands (squad health, form trends, tactical cohesion)
MSI = 65% WMR (average last 5) + 35% CHI (average last 3)
guardrailed ±2–5 per week.
If MSI keeps going up, we might actually getting somewhere. If it's stuck or falling, we're probably not.
Mon: Match Card (WMR receipt)
Thu: MSI headline + drivers
Month-end: CHI deep dive.
Why This Exists
Got sick of football chat being 'we won so we're brilliant' or just pure vibes. Wanted something that was more stat based.
Results lie; performances travel. You can shithouse a 2-1 win but that doesn't mean you're any good. Actually creating chances and not falling apart at the back matters.
No mood swings. One worldie from Bruno or one Maguire 90th minute header won't completely wreck the numbers. I use guardrails to reward sustained quality over one-off chaos.
Accountability with receipts. Every score comes with the data that drove it.
How to Read MSI
The scale breaks down into these tiers:
90–100 Best-in-Europe (title favorite): Peak. Absolutely flying: Could beat anyone home or away.
85–89.9 Final-Contender: Sustained elite level; small margins decide trophies.
80–84.9 Semifinal-Capable: Strong two-leg pedigree; favorites vs most quarterfinalists.
75–79.9 Quarterfinal Baseline: Consistent top-8 profile; withstands tougher away days.
70–74.9 Last-16 Favorite: Expected to advance from the Round of 16.
65–69.9 Europa Level: Short of UCL knockout standard; competitive in Europa.
60–64.9 Domestic Mid-table: Patchy form; top-half but not continental threat.
55–59.9 Domestic Bottom-third: Slipping standards; survival mode vibes.
50–54.9 Relegation Form: Structural issues; results and metrics both poor.
45–49.9 Severe Underperformance: Crisis trajectory without quick correction.
35–44.9 Crisis: Multiple fires at once. Drastic reset required.
0–34.9 Reset Needed: Bin the lot: Start from scratch.
Your Weekly Schedule
Monday: Weekly Match Rating (WMR)
Basically the stats take on how we actually played. Did we create chances? Did we control the game? Did we look solid at the back? Just that one game, forget everything else, were we any good or not?
Thursday: MSI Update
The headline number that matters. Takes recent performance (last 5 matches) plus club health trends, then gives you one trackable score with context.
Month-end: Club Health Index Deep Dive
When underlying club metrics shifts - squad availability, form trajectory, tactical evolution or finances. I’ll update this monthly and show you exactly what changed and how it impacts our ceiling. This is where I update the "club health index" component that feeds into MSI.
The Promise
I want the truth, not the drama. If we're actually playing like a decent team, the numbers will show it. If we aren’t, you'll know exactly where the gaps are; finishing, transitions, set pieces, squad depth, whatever.
Made this for United fans who want to know if we're actually good or just getting lucky, without losing their minds every week.
A Note on the Project
Fair warning - this is pretty new and I'm making it up as I go along. I'm an engineer who loves numbers and loves United, so figured I'd see if I could make something useful. The methodology will likely evolve as I learn what works and what doesn't. I'll be transparent about any changes and why I'm making them.